WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO RUSSIA AFTER THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC?

The world continues to struggle with the pandemic impact. Representatives of international organizations make the frightening statements about it, and the Russian government is preparing sets of anti-crisis measures to save the domestic economy. The president announced a weekend off the whole next week due to the threat of a pandemic, and ordinary people observe how much the ruble has fallen and that the prices have started to rise.

Almost all sectors of the economy are suffering from the consequences of the crisis, but air transportation along with inbound and outbound tourism have been found in the worst condition. The restaurants and non-food retail enterprises are on the verge of possible bankruptcy as well. However, many Russians are wondering, what areas of the economy will suffer the most?

One of the areas that will survive in this period is the entertainment industry. Many cinemas and concert halls are already closed or are being quarantined; business is suffering enormous losses. However, according to experts, the entertainment industry has a chance of survival - one of the ways to stay afloat is digital technologies that have come into our daily lives.

At the request of “Rusbankrot”, Ivan Panchenko, one of the founders of Postgres Professional, a software development company, commented on the current situation. He noted that the crisis and pandemic will become markers - they will determine, who will be able to adapt to new conditions and who will not. 

“Some offline points have not organized the food delivery yet and refused to accept online payments. In 2017, the non-cash payments accounted for 38% of all payments, the growth over the previous two years was 78%, and per capita income grew only by 3.3%”, Ivan Panchenko summed up.

Many experts agree that an active transition to online can play the role of “an oxygen pillow for a seriously ill patient”. Our interlocutor correctly noted that, "those, who traditionally were present only offline, will have a hard time." Ivan Panchenko cited the example of tickets to the Hermitage - in 2018, the museum earned 2.54 billion rubles from them, not including subsidies. “Therefore, the measures that the museum takes by organizing virtual tours are correct,” the expert added.

An effective attempt to make the visitors to “roam” around galleries (first on a free basis, and then for a fee) will allow museums to earn money by organizing the demonstrations of thematic exhibitions and lectures.

Another problem that may occur from the current situation is social exclusion. Many people are at home with their families. A popular opinion is that quarantine can lead to another baby boom. On the other hand, forced long-term communication, which many people did not experience before due to their work overload, can contribute to a series of divorces.

The demographic experts are sure that the baby boom will happen neither in Russia nor in the world. Many couples plan the childbirth in advance and use contraception.

The uncertainty, regarding the prospects for possible mass layoffs and job losses, does not contribute to the birth rate increase as well.

The same cannot be said about the situation with divorces - in China, for example, an increase in their number has been recorded. By the way, the reason for divorces, according to experts, can be caused not only forced isolation. During the quarantine period, the state institutions did not work and did not accept the applications for divorce from the citizens, who wanted to apply for it.

One of the consequences of the current crisis may also be a change of the relationship between workers and employers. Many enterprises have forced their employees to work remotely. Many experts consider this as positive changes, especially in the areas, where the level of market monopolization is traditionally high. For example, in education area, the most organizations are transferred to remote forms of work, and the market of educational services is traditionally determined by state standards. This means that in the future, a new situation for the country, related to the development of new programs and curricula that are not related to the peculiarities of the geographic location of students, may arise. Whether the experts' forecasts are to come true or not, will only be clear after the end of the crisis.