SHOULD RUSSIA PREPARE FOR A NEW FINANCIAL CRISIS?

It is worth noting that the crisis situation may begin at the mark of 2.5 points - in this case, the "increased likelihood" of a decline in the economy begins. What is the reason for this? First of all, analysts blame the coronavirus for everything. It was able to reduce business activity around the world and even undermine the economy of developed countries.

The rating agency noted that the situation in Russia is quite consistent with current world trends. There is a possibility that the financial stress index will decrease and the situation will stabilize, but first the situation in the stock markets should improve. This can happen if an agreement on oil production is reached. If the oil-producing countries still cannot agree, and the virus continues to spread actively, there is no way to avoid the crisis. Agency experts added that there is a very high probability of developing precisely a negative scenario. 

In this case, the oil prices will continue to fall and the Central Bank will not be able to further support the ruble, because this will drain reserves and become economically disadvantageous. In this situation, the forces of the Central Bank of Russia will be enough until the end of April, and after that the national currency will begin to depreciate and a crisis will ensue.

We should note that many banks have already begun to raise mortgage rates by an average of 1.5%. It is expected that in the near future other financial players will join them. Another unpleasant moment - the new rate will apply both to new applications for a mortgage, as well as to already approved, but not signed agreements. The bankers explain the situation by the fall of the ruble and the market instability. If the current mortgage conditions are maintained, the issuance of loans will become a loss-making business for the banks.