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Experts predict a decrease in the number of bankruptcies
Experts predict a decrease in the number of bankruptcies
State support provided to businesses by the governments of different countries during the pandemic has been reducing the number of bankruptcies for the second year in a row. This is the conclusion made by the experts of the Euler Hermes insurance company, predicting a decrease in the total number of bankruptcies in 2021. Experts call the continuing monetary policy pursued by the financial regulators in different countries as another factor influencing such dynamics.
According to Kommersant, measures taken by the states to support the economy could reduce the number of bankruptcies by 6% on a global scale in 2021. Last year practice led to a 12% reduction. According to experts, in European countries, government support measures have allowed 50% of companies to stay afloat, and in the United States, the number of such companies is about 33%.
Experts predict that in 2022, the number of insolvency verdicts may increase by 15%. This will actually return the bankruptcy situation in terms of intensity to the state it was before the start of the pandemic. But even in this case, the number of bankruptcies will remain less than the level of 2019 by at least 4%.
Experts say that a lot will depend on the market conditions and the preservation of government support measures. Otherwise, the existing risks can increase greatly. The situation also depends on the local economic situation in different countries.
For example, in the United States, the trend towards a decrease in the number of bankruptcies, recorded in 2021 at the level of 28%, may continue.
If this year their number is 16,800, then next year it can reach 17,600. A similar situation can be observed in the developed countries of Europe. In Germany, experts predict 15 thousand bankruptcies in 2021 (a decrease of 18%), and in 2022, 16.3 thousand. The number of bankruptcies decreased in France (by 17%) and in the UK (by 8%).
In Italy and Spain, the bankruptcy situation is more depressing. There, the number of such processes not only did not decrease, but even increased.
In Italy, the figure was 53%, and in Spain - 50%. Experts cite the reason for the significant share in the economy of these countries of those industries that are most affected by the restrictions imposed.
In Russia, as in many developing countries, where support measures were less extensive, the number of bankruptcies also decreased by 19%. Experts record a similar situation in China (20%), Turkey (11%) and Brazil (5%). It is assumed that by the end of 2021, 8.5 thousand business entities will go bankrupt in the Russian Federation. Last year, this figure was 10.2 thousand, and in 2019 - 11.7 thousand. Next year, the intensity of bankruptcies may increase, reaching 9.5 thousand bankruptcies.
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