Do Poland and the Baltic States threaten Kaliningrad region with a blockade?

Ukraine's appeal to the EU countries with a request to close the borders with Russia and Belarus has found ground for numerous discussions by current and retired officials.  On March 31, Ukrainian Ambassador Andriy Deshchytsia announced negotiations with Poland.  And although the negotiations of the Polish Infrastructure Ministry with the Baltic countries have already begun, it is not so easy to establish an “iron curtain” for goods delivered from Russia and to Russia, since this requires the consent of the EU member states.

Unofficial statements from representatives of the Polish political elite are filled with bold rhetoric. The former commander of the ground forces of Poland, Waldemar Skrzypczak, during an interview with one of the media on March 25, said that the Kaliningrad region is under occupation of Russia and should be returned to Poland.

The head of the press service of the region, Dmitry Lyskov, in response, called such statements stupid. However, he said that the regional authorities were in any case preparing for the development of events according to a negative scenario, strengthening ferry traffic and hoping that they will not have to switch cargo transportation to air traffic. At the same time, the region, which is geographically isolated from the rest of the Russian Federation, is going through hard times due to sanctions.

Problems with operating Russian transport on the border with Lithuania have been periodically arising for more than a month.

The Lithuanian authorities are well aware of the difficulties with closing the borders, requiring the intervention of the EU leadership. As noted by the Prime Minister of the Republic, Ingrida Simonyte, the eurozone implies a free flow of goods between states. In addition, as the head of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry Gabrielius Landsbergis later added to her words, Lithuania is connected with Russia and the EU by a trilateral agreement that imposes additional obligations on the country related to transit to the Kaliningrad region.

At the same time, the Baltic countries and Poland continue to discuss the closure of not only land borders with Russia and Belarus, but also the closure of maritime traffic. According to experts, there are no economic grounds for this. More precisely, such actions can become a devastating factor for the economy of the Baltic countries, an example of which is the story of the breach of the agreement with Belaruskali, which Rusbankrot wrote about earlier.

As numerous experts recall, Lithuania's accession to the European Union in 2004 was subject to the mandatory provision of a land route to Kaliningrad.

Violation of this condition may lead to a conflict between Vilnius and Brussels, as well as become a pretext for the start of hostilities by Russia, which the residents of the Baltic countries are so afraid of.