Coronavirus pandemic awakened the Italian mafia: Is such a scenario possible for Russia?

Italy, suffering from the spread of coronavirus, runs the risk of experiencing even more serious consequences after the disease recedes. Rising unemployment and massive bankruptcies can cause a surge in crime and exacerbate the difficult situation in Italian society.

The well-known criminal clans - Sicilian Cosa Nostra, Neapolitan Camorra, Calabrian Ndrangheta have not disappeared. It is known that the lack of ability of the official authorities to solve the vital problems of citizens always encourages the latter to ask the criminals for help.

Robberies and raids on shops in Italy existed before. But the events of recent weeks indicate that the leadership of the republic already has a fear for the rampant crime. The dangers of "spontaneous and organized uprisings" featured in a recent report, prepared for a discussion at the Ministry of the Interior, worry the Italian authorities just as much as the problems of health and the pandemic.

The experts note that events in Italy will inevitably lead to bankruptcy of about 44% of small businesses.

The Italian mafia annually earns billions of euros from the sale of drugs and will be ready to lend money to the bankrupt or seriously impoverished population.

Given that in the south of Italy (less affected by the disease, but historically poorer), the youth unemployment rate has recently been around 50%, it is reasonable to assume from which sources the Italian mafia will replenish its ranks.

The problems of the poor Italian south are also complicated by the fact that many employees of the enterprises were arranged illegally. According to the experts, there are about 3.5 million people who cannot get protection from the crisis through the help of the official authorities. For the 25.5 million able-bodied population of the country, it is a fairly significant figure, which runs the risk of overturning the public order by going to the side of crime.

These citizens will not be able to receive the declared assistance of € 600 and other social benefits, which the government promised to every entrepreneur, affected by quarantine and the pandemic.

It will be difficult to avoid riots and in the current situation. Who will ultimately win the competition for power over a population that is suffering from the restrictions and pandemic: the state or crime? It depends on the effectiveness of the measures that were taken to saturate the country's economy with liquidity and carried out by the executive branch. 

Thinking about the Italian mafia, a reasonable question arises - is such a situation possible in Russia? Indeed, in our country, unemployment is also growing, and the population is getting poorer and falls into deeper despair every day. The experts from the International Legal Company told the representatives of “Rusbankrot” that, despite the fact that it might sound really sad, any course of events is possible in Russia.

“The media repeatedly but neatly expresses fears of a coup / revolt / revolution due to the fact that a huge number of working-age people have been and will soon be unemployed and without a source of income. The lack of earnings, the availability of alcohol, the lack of clear prospects and the active state support of the unemployed citizens can provoke robberies and attacks on the lives of other people. In other words, it means the prosperity of crime,” shared in the ILC.

Our interlocutors also suggested that self-isolation may have been introduced just in order to avoid such a development of events. The ILC experts also noted that the decisions are now being issued to impose fines for violating the regime of self-isolation, because without intimidation with responsibility, it will be impossible to restrain the population from committing various illegal actions. It is worth noting that in some regions, the restrictions on the sale of alcohol have been introduced.

The Liquidators and Bankruptcy Bar Association Lawyers also shared concerns about the potential increase in crime, citing a lack of direct government support.

“According to statistics, about 60% of Russians do not have savings. If the current situation continues for another couple of months, criminal chronicles will be full of reports of thefts and robberies. People may find themselves in a hopeless situation if there is no money to buy even food,” said the expert.

It remains to rely on the reasonableness of the Russians, peace of mind and the hope that the economic situation will stabilize in the nearest future, primarily in relation to the ordinary citizens.