MAXIM RESHETNIKOV: “THE CRISIS MAY LAST UNTIL 2021-2022”

The Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov answered a number of questions, concerning anti-crisis measures and their implementation during the online conference with the representatives of business.

At the very beginning of the online meeting, an opinion was voiced that a moratorium on bankruptcy does not suit many entrepreneurs - it prohibits not only to bankrupt the enterprise, but also to pay the dividends.

In response, Maxim Reshetnikov said that this question certainly needs to be raised. However, a very important fact must be taken into account - the payment of dividends might be made possible provided that the company does not use the credit support measures for it. Otherwise, it means that the state gives a subsidized loan for the payment of salaries or for a working capital, while the company pays the dividends. Such a situation cannot be allowed.

In his speech, Maxim Reshetnikov said that in the first set of anti-crisis measures, the main logic and task was to postpone everything for six months. Being aware of the uncertainty, it was necessary to postpone the rent payments and the credit programs to the maximum, and in this direction, the goal was achieved. The second task is to help financially.

“This decision was very difficult for us,” Reshetnikov noted. - There was a lot of controversy inside the government - why help, if there is an option to wait until it is over and then help those who will remain? But we have overcome this position”.

The Minister agreed that the measures that were taken are not enough. However, no matter, what kind of set of measures is adopted now, it will certainly be not enough. Maxim Reshetnikov emphasized that the coronavirus will have a serious impact on the economy, and that a deep adjustment is expected.

“Many people say that the 2008 crisis was not really overcome, it did not end with structural changes, but was postponed. The risks of 2008 might catch us up. This is not a scarecrow, you just need to consider that the resources may be needed in 2021 and 2022”, added Reshetnikov.

The Minister of Economic Development said that there are funds, but they are not unlimited. He recalled that his ministry always favors a softer budget policy, but in this case, the risks are really great. “By 2008, we approached with a reserve of 17% of GDP in reserve funds, now it is 11% and there is a small illiquid part, by the end of the year it will be 7%. The share of social obligations has been growing from year to year. We got used to the oil price of $ 42 and decided that it would be the same forever”, the minister said.

Reshetnikov added that no one should use the crisis in order to change the existing balances in the sectors. Of course, the current balance does not suit everyone, but for the moment, it is convenient. The minister emphasized that the main thing is “not to let anyone cull anything during the crisis”.

After that, the business representatives turned to Maxim Reshetnikov with their questions. The first speaker was a representative of the banking sector, recalling that today banks are at a risk.

The banks are reluctant to issue the loans for paying the salaries, because they are at a risk. All of the current measures for the entrepreneurs can be called anti-banking - credit holidays, a moratorium on bankruptcy, etc. Should we help the banks as well? Today we give out a loan to the enterprise, and perhaps tomorrow, you will include it in some other list and we will lose our interest.

Maxim Reshetnikov: “The banks have really been loaded with losses, their size of which is still unclear, the uncertainty is high. We understand all these issues and will solve them. All these are the axes that have been thrown for six months - during the crisis we should catch them, put on the helmets, or get out of the place. But all this time we will be observing their trajectory. ”

The next speaker was the representative of the “Hoff” company, complaining about a rental relationship. He recalled that the chain stores occupy quite large areas and about 30% of the expenses are spent on the rent.

We should recognize the pandemic as force majeure in order to terminate the agreements ahead of schedule. We want to agree on the new market conditions, but the lessors insist on the old ones. We do not want to pay the rent for the closed stores as well.

Maxim Reshetnikov: “It is a difficult question, we have now tried to carefully intervene in this chain, and have provided for the deferrals. You can go to court and recognize the situation as force majeure. In terms of recognition by the government, we are afraid that this will cause avalanche-like consequences. What to do with the shopping centers, with banks, and with investors? This will be another solution at the expense of the banks. We do not see an option that will work. There may be fines, and we are waiting for your suggestions. ”

The representatives of the advertising business also asked questions. The main one was why the advertising was not included in the list of affected industries, given the removal of budgets and the massive drop in the market?

The list includes only outdoor advertising companies, but what about the Internet and television? We sent all the employees to work remotely, now we need to terminate the lease agreements ahead of schedule in order to preserve jobs. Paying rent now means losing 400 employees.

Maxim Reshetnikov: “Not everyone will return to offices from a remote work, the market will change. Something will have to be done with this, the demand will decrease, and the profitability will decrease. There will be losses of the banks and losses of the owners. Perhaps this situation will have to be raked for 3-5 years. The business services sector was not included in the list at all, as if these guys were making good money - here are both lawyers and accountants. On the other hand, we cannot save everyone. The market will not be the same for some time. This is a matter of reasonable compression. When it comes to the advertising, the questions regarding the Internet and the TV advertising should be discussed with the Ministry of Communications. ”

The restaurateurs, as well as the manufacturers and suppliers, took the floor. First of all, they recalled that foreign companies such as McDonald’s, KFC and Burger King were recognized as systemically important, while Russian companies were not included in the list.

The discrimination against the private companies takes place- the employees of the state cafeteria sit at home and get paid, while the employees of the private cafeteria cannot count on it, as there is no state behind them, the salaries are paid from the sales.

Maxim Reshetnikov: “We do not have the state canteens or cafeterias and there is no point in talking about competition between the state capital and private capital, at least in the field of public catering. One could talk about the airlines on the example of Aeroflot, but none of the private traders contacted us there. Now we are discussing subsidizing all the companies, both state and non-state. If an industry decision is made, we believe that the approach should be the same for everyone. ”

The owner of Zenden shoe manufacture, Andrei Pavlov, asked the minister how to save the large business, given that now all the support is aimed at the small businesses.

We need a unified taxation system. I suggest a reduction of VAT, as 20% is too much. It is necessary to remove all the benefits and make 5% VAT for the small businesses.

Maxim Reshetnikov: “Yes, now there is a small business support system. In Russia, the situation is like “we have something like Gazprom or have SMEs”. Everything in between is not supported well. Changing the taxation system is not a part of the anti-crisis policy, but this is the next stage, we need to solve this issue. In fact, we have already begun to prepare a recovery package, a structural package, let's move this issue there. ”

The manufacturers of tea and coffee asked their own questions. The fact is that their raw materials are grown in the southern hemisphere, and they have to buy them for currency when the industry is in crisis. Moreover, the product is socially significant, but it is becoming more expensive - a similar situation was in 1998.

The enterprises that process less than 70% of Russian raw materials are not supported. We process 100% of imported raw materials, but we need support. There is discrimination, we also need loans.

Maxim Reshetnikov: “This is the conscious position of the Ministry of Agriculture, given the limited resources, as I understand it. They have chosen priorities and do not understand whether this raw material is unique or not. It is necessary to be discussed specifically with them. ”

In the final part of the meeting, a representative of the Nizhny Novgorod region made a statement on the situation in the region. He noted that they have 50% of handicraft enterprises that did not fall into the group of affected industries - while they are closed and do not work. The businessman also reported on the situation with the carriers, in particular, that measures are being taken with respect to SMEs, but not with respect to large businesses. One carrier, located in Nizhny Novgorod, which paid 1.9 billion taxes last year, with 3,500 employees, was called as an example. But as soon as the banks had realized that it was a damaged industry, and there had been no support, they immediately demanded the closure of the loans. Alfa-Bank demands to pay 300 million rubles in two months.

If you called them affected, consider the state support at the federal level. We conducted monitoring among banks, even Sberbank representatives said that there was not an order from Moscow to work on the 410 ruling - this is the support for SMEs, please speed up. We cannot date everything from the budget of the region.

Maxim Reshetnikov: “Today I spoke with German Gref (note: the head of Sberbank), he said that everything was under control, everyone saw everything. As for the carrier, this is just a matter of affected sectors, not SMEs. Now the focus is on SMEs, but I know that it is necessary to check the information, and all the victims will be in the list. It will also be necessary to resolve the issue on the folk crafts. ”

At the end of the conversation, Maxim Reshetnikov added that the government is open for dialogue and expects business solutions to the problems, because the current situation is imperfect.

“We choose to do at least something, than to do nothing. Even if it helps only 20% of those who need help”, the minister said.

Reshetnikov recalled that now the government is in constant motion. If three weeks ago, the question of direct payments to the enterprises did not find any support at all, now this decision was made very quickly. At the moment, the authorities are making decisions at a very high speed, the only question is implementation.