THE EXPERTS PREDICT THE RATE OF NATIONAL CURRENCY BY 90 RUBLES PER DOLLAR

The analysts of the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, involved in the creation of the economic development scenarios, have prepared a forecast in case a new wave of pandemic hits Russia. According to the experts of the center for macroeconomic analysis, we should expect a serious plunge in the rate of ruble against the major world currencies (dollar and euro) in this case.

According to the forecast, the national currency rate in the last quarter of 2020 might fall to 85-100 rubles per dollar. As the main reasons for the weakening of ruble, the experts cite new restrictive measures on the part of the authorities of different countries, a decrease in oil purchase prices, caused by lower demand, as well as an outflow of capital from the emerging markets, including Russia.

The Autumn and the New Year's increase in demand for foreign currency, necessary for the purchase of imported goods, can also play a negative role in the weakening of ruble.

The main scenario, proposed by the specialists of the CMASTF, implies that for by the end of this year and throughout the next year, the exchange rate of ruble will be 87 to 91 rubles per dollar.

In this case, the most optimistic scenario indicates a rate of 85 rubles per dollar, while the pessimistic one indicates a fall to the rate of 100 rubles per North American dollar and even more.

Many well-known experts in Russia have already expressed their doubts about the forecasts of the CMASTF. For example, even in the event of a new wave of a pandemic and, as a result, the loss of gross regional product in big cities of Russia at the level of 20%, predicted by the experts of the analytical center, we should not forget about the current budget rule that prevents a catastrophic depreciation of the national currency. This, in particular, is mentioned by one of the directors of the Alfa Capital Management Company, Vladimir Bragin. According to the expert, the oil prices would no longer be falling as disastrously as they were in March. The macroeconomic conditions, in which the world would fall in the event of the second wave of a pandemic, would be significantly different from the conditions of the beginning of this year.

Many experts do not expect the collapses of the national currency, indicating that even a reduction in foreign exchange interventions by the Central Bank will not allow the ruble to drop below 75 rubles in 2020.

The mitigation of the restrictive anti-epidemic measures and the more confident state of the Russian economy, compared to the other developing countries, will have a positive impact. As the analysts of the Bloomberg agency note in their forecast, the weighted average dollar rate will be about 72 rubles at the end of 2020.