THE EXPERT: MORE THAN 100 BANKS WILL BE LIQUIDATED OVER THE COMING YEARS

The head of ACRA (analytical credit rating agency) Mikhail Sukhov, who previously held the post of the deputy chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, made a forecast of a reduction in the number of credit institutions in the Russian financial market in the next three years. According to the expert, more than a hundred banks will be forced to leave the market.

A third of them, according to Sukhov, are liquidated on their own, without interference from the Central Bank. Apparently, the regulator will have to play a decisive role in eliminating the rest.

The voluntary closure of banks, according to Sukhov, will be facilitated by the drop in profitability, which could be observed recently - now, the business prefers to leave the market in a civilized manner.

It is illogical and unpromising to keep operating the enterprises that generate losses.

Therefore, the expert believes, many banking organizations may prefer voluntary licenses surrender to the court bankruptcy procedures and revocation of a license by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. First of all, we are talking about local credit organizations that are not able to undermine confidence in the financial sector on a global scale. An alternative way of survival for such structures may also be a tendency towards mergers and acquisitions, which Sukhov called "a matter of economy."

The expert called the insufficient presence of private capital, resulting in a crisis of creativity, one of the main problems of the banking sector. According to the CEO of ACRA, in the long term this may lead to a shortage of new ideas in the field of strategic development. Being able to develop retail financial products in a digital environment and being reliable does not mean being competitive. The fact that the banks’ lending to the enterprises has decreased by 10% in relation to GDP over the past five years, which indicates the conservatism of the financial and credit system, where the state continues to play the main role as the main shareholder.

The expert explains the sharp outflow of funds from bank accounts that occurred several times during the pandemic by the fact that deposits themselves are becoming less popular compared to the interest that citizens show in other instruments for placement of funds.

However, so far, even sharp fluctuations and risks of outflow of funds from accounts do not go beyond 15% of the total volume of funds held on deposits.

Therefore, according to Sukhov, there are no grounds for a catastrophic forecast of the development of events.

Touching upon the prospects for the development of the rating market, Sukhov noted that its activation is facilitated by the gradual transition of preferences of capital holders from placing funds on deposits to investing in investment products. The demand for agency services will only increase, especially in the direction of assessing the risks associated with mismanagement, environmental and social issues (the so-called ESG ratings).