HALF A BILLION OF PEOPLE WILL FALL INTO POVERTY: THE IMF ANNOUNCED A FORECAST FOR THE CRISIS

In the midst of global panic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) continues a series of predictions for the development of the global economy in general and the Russian one in particular.  In the latest report, which has been released recently, it states that the crisis could last for two years.

Probably, for the first time, the IMF experts point to the complete uncertainty about the way the current global crisis will affect the lives of ordinary people.  But the fact that the life will change dramatically is taken for the truth by many people. It is interesting that the only country, where the recession is not likely to happen, according to the IMF, is China.

This year, the economy of the Middle Kingdom will grow slightly (by 1.2%), and in 2021, the growth rate may reach 9.2%.  The IMF predicts a 4.7% drop in the economy of the North American states in 2020, and 7.5% for Europe.

Against the background of frankly negative forecasts of economic development in the USA and the EU countries, China shows really good results.

However, given the optimistic forecast of the victory over the pandemic this year, the IMF experts believe that next year, both the United States and European countries expect a four percent increase.

It is a thankless task to make the macroeconomic forecasts in advance, given the rapid changes in the current situation in the world.  According to the IMF experts, global losses will be about $ 9 trillion.  At the same time, despite the general recession, which will affect 157 countries of the world, in some countries the fall may prove catastrophic.  Among them there are Venezuela (15%), Lebanon (12%), Greece (10%), Croatia and Montenegro (9% each). 

The experts of IMF predict a global economy contraction of 3% this year and an increase of 5.8% next year.  But it will happen only if it is possible to avoid massive bankruptcies and terrifying unemployment.

In Russia, the GDP will decline by 5.5%, according to the forecasts for 2020.  However, the economy will not be able to return to the previous level next year, since the growth is expected to be only 3.5%.

The situation is even worse in the labor market.  The ILO (International Labor Organization) forecasts state that the billions of people are likely to lose their jobs.  The most serious losses will be in HoReCa, retail and a number of industries.  More than a half of a billion people on the planet will fall into poverty.